WHAT THE FUCK?
This is a political post.
If interested, please scroll down.
A few days ago my friend PK called me. “I’m at the edge of a cliff. Talk me down!”
“What’s doing on?”
“New polls show Trump gaining a bit. How can that be? HOW can anybody support him?”
I read her part of the latest newsletter from Hopium:
“Republicans have dropped over 60 polls into the battlegrounds over the last two weeks to try to move the polling averages towards them. They would not be doing all this if they believed they were winning the election.”
They did same in 2022. Remember the much-vaunted Red Wave, that never came ashore?
Most polls this late in the game are based on “likely voters” You know, people who voted in the previous election. But there’s been a massive, and I mean massive, uptick in new voter registration since 2020. Young Black women are up an astounding 175%. And young people are WAY up, too. Yet none of this is being reflected in the polling.
This, alone, could create a Blue Wave. And this is from the end of July, before the huge enthusiasm for Harris would have kicked in. Click to enlarge.
Trump keeps saying he’s ahead in the polls. He’s lying. Of course. From 538 polling aggregate.
Since Harris entered the race at the end of July, and as people have gotten to know her, her favorability ratings as have spiked.
While people dislike Trump more than they like him. It has always been thus.
Most polls of likely voters are also “adjusted” based on the previous election. But, it is delusional to think 2024 is anything like 2020. Can you say Dobbs Dobbs Dobbs?
Team Harris has raised an astounding, unheard of $1 billion in just two months. While money alone doesn’t = a win, it certainly shows support. And people who donate are almost certainly gonna vote.
.
Trump has been struggling to fill his rallies. I watched one video where the front half of the venue was filled (and this would have been visible to Trump and his line of sight) but the entire rear half was 100% empty (and out of Trump’s line of sight).
Harris as been filling huge stadiums. Of course, like with money, crowd size doesn’t = a win but it, again, shows tremendous enthusiasm.
Indeed, respected Monmouth did a poll showing that voter enthusiasm has spiked in a way that they have never seen before,
Note the huge spike at the end of July, when Harris entered the race. The spike involved Democrats and Independents. This alone could create a Blue Wave. Note the flat line for Republicans.
This is critical. VOTE!
I’ve said many times: Democrats HELP. Republicans HARM.
Democrats HELP. Note the flat line under Trump regarding construction. Note the huge uptick under Biden/Harris.
Democrats HELP. Republicans HARM. Tim Walz, left. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor of Arkansas, right, after she signed a new law so very young children could be forced to work. Note their happy faces.
Democrats HELP. From yesterday. Remember in 2020 when Trump shrieked how Biden would crash the stock market? You know, the exact same thing he is now shrieking about Harris?
Trump is endlessly shrieking, too, about “illegals” pouring over the southern people, wanting to destroy America. Note how is he also always uses the phrase “open border”. Yet, America has no open borders, and Biden nor Harris….nor any Democrat…has ever advocated for open borders. In short, as is with almost everything Trump says, he is lying about the issue.
Friends of mine, very Liberal, have a son who voted for Trump. Twice. They were horrified but never argued with him. Recently though, he approached his mother:
“Mom? I’ve been listening to Trump’s speeches and it’s all about anger and hate and fear. How did I not see that before? I can’t be a part of that anymore.”
I thought this was powerful.
CAVEAT
I 97% believe Trump (and Putin) will try and steal the election. I mean, actual votes.
I 97% believe that Trump, if the results show a Harris win, will do everything possible to fuck over the results, causing massive confusion for months and throwing the whole election to the Supreme Court. And we know how THAT will end.
Trump already has a phalanx of lawyers filing suits to disenfranchise voters, and Republicans officials are doing same. Recent headlines:
Judge: GA Election Officials Cannot Refuse To Certify
Judge Strikes Down Law Paxton Uses Against Latinos
Cheney: I Don’t Trust Johnson To Certify Election Result
FL Makes Last-Ditch Bid To Kill Abortion Measure
Think I’m being too alarmist?
I’m not.
NOTE: Team Harris has also deployed has a phalanx of lawyers filing suits to protect democracy.
Still, even if Harris wins, I won’t rest until she’s sworn in.
12 Comments
Leave a Comment
Your email address will NEVER be made public or shared, and you may use a screen name if you wish.
Don’t believe the polls. Don’t listen to the noise. Many are being silent. Trump will pull something and hopefully we’ll all be ready- the govt. too.
Sir , thank you! I needed to read this today.
Totally agree. I can only hope that we are much better prepared for t-rumpus’s mayhem than we were.
Agree with you 100% Ross. I am confident that Harris will win, but still get a little nervous when I read some of these headlines saying Trump is gaining in the polls. We have to be on our toes, keep sending contributions to Harris if you are able to.
I’m with you. A great article explained all the shitty polls the GOP are submitting which skews the polls making it appear Trump is ahead, as you stated. We all need to vote. We already submitted our absentee ballots to the city clerk.
Ross, it’s good to hear from you. I have missed our discussions. I remember how many times you said that polls don’t matter any longer. Although Amy and I are in Japan we read HCR daily, along with other daily papers and listen to NPR. We’re hopefully and nervously counting down the days.
So glad to see a post from you! I am a worrier. About you AND the election. I am surrounded by Maggots here in south central Illinois, but I have my Harris/Walz sign out! Just hoping it doesn’t get paint balled or stolen.
Many toothless, Trump, cult members here, but I also have friends who are educated, smart ( I thought) who are Trump sycophants too. I cannot understand how. Trump was ignorant before but now is demented and ignorant.
Such a scary time. Thanks Ross, for doing all your work in putting the truth out there.
Totally agree, Linda. I’m in small town Nevada – more red than blue but a strong blue community. My hubby put out a Republicans for Trump sign in Scenic, Arizona, where we have property. It lasted three days before it was destroyed. That’s a really red area. I have family members who are fans of the treason-committer, and I will never understand it.
Thank you Ross! I am also optimistic based on the speed of enthusiasm built around Harris in such a short time. The polls that still show even races are disconcerting nonetheless.
I am trying to prepare myself mentally for a contested result and ensuing buffoonery.
The mainstream polls are irrelevant, as you described. All other ind8cations point to Donald getting his clock cleaned. The real worry is the Big Lie 2.0 shenanigans that will ensue.
I don’t follow the polls. I trust Professor Allan Lichtman who has studied elections his entire career and developed a model with 13 criteria that accurately predicts presidential elections in the U.S. Yes, he called it for Gore and subsequently it has shown that Gore did win, had it not been for the interference of the Supreme Court and officials in Florida (with some thumbs on the scale from the GOP). Had the vote count been allowed to continue, Gore would have won.
Allan Lichtman predicts a Harris/Walz win. He has scientific methods that support this.
Polls can be biased. Flooding the media what dozens of right leaning biased polls is a way to try to influence the election.
I’m hoping all it does is motivate more Democrats to register and get out and vote.
I follow Legal AF on the Meidas Touch on YouTube and Justice Matters with Glenn Kirschner. There are Democratic lawyers that are watching all of these lawsuits in all of the states, not just the swing states and they are ready with their own lawsuits and challenges to make sure our elections aren’t stolen by Leonard Leo and the Heritage Foundation, the fascists behind Trump.
As an added note regarding the sane-washing of Trump’s dementia and the GOP turning blind eyes.
It is my belief that if Trump manages to get elected, by the electoral college, the House of Representatives or the corrupt Supreme Court, that right after he is inaugurated he will be removed from office for dementia and Shady Vance will be installed as President. Shady Vance who is pals with the author of Project 2025. I think this has been their plan all along. Otherwise how did this unqualified, disgusting, unpopular fascist that Trump never heard of get chosen as his VP? He even let it slip by challenging Harris to a debate. She’s running for president and he is running for VP. Well, I think in his mind he was already operating as the presidential nominee.
There’s also democracydocket with Mark Elias. He’s been keeping and eye on all of the shenanigans and has a group of lawyers ready to move to protect our voting rights and our Democracy. He appears on Brian Tyler Cohen’s Democracy Watch pretty regularly.